Left pulls the plug, finally. Amarsingh is singing ‘my dear Sonia’. Bush has suddenly become less harmful to Mulayam who won 2004 elections on anti-Bush campaign. Mehbooba Mufti, who pulled the carpet from under Ghulam NabiĀ is so fond of saving the government at the centre.

So whats the deal behind the deal?

1. J&K Govt?

2. Anil Ambani’s business?

3. Telangana state?

4. Reopening of Taj corridor case?

5. KeepingĀ S M Krishna out of Karnataka politics?

6.

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The departure of Devender Gowd from Telugu Desam Party, has not only weakened TDP, but has raised many other interesting questions. Undoubtfully, this move adds to the Telangana movement, and throws the major parties in the state: Congress and TDP into defence. The Chandrababu Naidu led Telugu Desam Party is still unclear about its agenda on Telangana issue. Although Mr.Naidu has given statements that they are not against the formation of a new state, but they are vague unlike the previous general elections, where they have contested with the ‘Samaikya-Andhra’ (United Andhra Pradesh) agenda.

But, what is more interesting would be the analysis of the previous two elections in the Telangana region in the last 4 years. Even in 2004 general election, TDP hasn’t performed badly (infact better than other regions) in this region, though the Congress-TRS (Telangana Rastra Samiti) has got the major stake, by the anti-government wave. The recent by-election, because of the en masse resignations of the TRS party representatives in March 2008, also turned out to be against TRS. Ofcourse, this cannot be considered as a referendum over the creation, rather we can view it as a gradual decline of people’s faith in Chandrasekhara Rao led TRS. This probably would have led Devender Gowd to go for a new party based on Telangana issue, since we have witnessed TRS being wronged inspite of growing strength of the Telangana issue.

Telugu Desam Party, ideally would love to stick to the same idea of united-andhra, but seems to be left with not much of options. This is because the very identity of TDP lies on one-ness based on the language and the division in the state would envitably leaves the party with more ‘leaders’. The second tier leaders in TDP: Devender Gowd, Kadiyam Sri Hari etc., had been expressing their dissent over the past few days, has left the Mr.Naidu helpless. He would probably have to voice the same Telangana song to win an alliance with one of the parties with this agenda.

One more group which might be adversely affected with the present chain of events is Chiranjeevi, the superstar of Andhra Pradesh. He has already declared that he is coming up with a new party by the end of August. CPI has already offered strong backing to him, while CPI (M) is probably trying to rope him into the party itself. The reason why his ambitions of CM might decline is because both the left partys are strong in the Telangana region. Moreover, he has a strong support from fans in the Nizam area, which means loss of atleast around 10-15 Assembly constituencies. On the top of this, he would also have to make his agenda clear on the issue, which is another challenge for the Chiru-campaigners. But, if he takes the decision of supporting Telangana movement; he would join the league of TRS, BJP and Devender Gowd, which means Telangana might be envitable atleast over the next 5 years.

The election which is scheduled tomorrow for 4 Lok sabha seats and 18 Assembly seats is because of the en masse resignations of the TRS (Telangana Rastra Samiti) party representatives in March 2008, expressing the dissent with the attitude of UPA towards the new state of Telangana. As a result, the by-election forms a dress-rehearsel for the elections in 2009, a ‘semi final’ in the words of KCR, the chief of TRS. Ofcourse, some of the parties would like to see this by-election as a referendum for the concept of Telangana.

TRS has a definite edge over the other parties, since all these places were won by them in the previous election. It would be easier for them to win even without Congress, since the anti-government wave might help them. But, their deferral attitude towards an affirmative action might hurt them, since they have resigned just a few months before the elections, which left the people lose their faith in the party. TRS is also been branded as ‘opportunistic’, because of their decisions over the past 4 years. On the top of that, the performance index in terms of development initiatives by the party representatives in these regions, hasn’t been up to the mark, which meant to the Telanganites that it is yet another party with a change of color in the flag. But the stakes are high for TRS, as this is a great chance for them to establish their credibility and strengthen the Telangana movement.

Congress would have tough time, since it would have to fight the election with not just TDP (Telugu Desam Party), but also its previous allies: TRS and CPI(M). CPI(M) has a strong say in Telangana, and most of its seats in Andhra pradesh are generally from that region. Although they might not be key winners of the constituencies, they would play a crucial role in terms of votes-split. While, TDP, the only major party which still sticks to the ‘Samaikya Andhra’ (united Andhra) idea, is ‘rethinking’ about its strategy over the Telangana issue, owing to the increasing pressure from TDP Telangana leaders. However, the present stand of TDP in the election would still be the Samaikya Andhra.

On a whole, the election cannot be termed as a people say on ‘Telangana’, since it is not a complete election over the whole of region, but the constituencies where TRS has resigned. However, it would surely reflect upon the chances of Congress party and TRS in the coming general elections.